Russian budget surplus seen at 1.8% of GDP in 2019, 1.1% in 2020

MOSCOW, Sep 19 (PRIME) -- Russia’s federal budget surplus is projected at 1.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019, 1.1% in 2020, and 0.8% in 2021, according to a draft budget seen by PRIME on Wednesday.

In monetary terms, the surplus is seen at 1.885 trillion rubles, 1.183 trillion rubles, and 900 billion rubles, respectively.

REVENUE

Budget revenue is expected at 19.948 trillion rubles in 2019, 20.195 trillion rubles in 2020, and 20.952 trillion rubles in 2021.

Oil and gas revenues to the budget are planned at 8.7 trillion rubles in 2018, 8.298 trillion rubles in 2019, 7.936 trillion rubles in 2020, and 8.018 trillion rubles in 2021.

The ministry projects that collections of value-added tax (VAT) to the budget will grow to 6.9 trillion rubles in 2019 from 5.9 trillion rubles in 2018 mainly due to an increase of the tax rate to 20% from January 1, 2019. VAT collections will grow to 7.374 trillion rubles in 2020 and 7.937 trillion rubles in 2021.

Budget revenue from excise duties is expected at 1.068 trillion rubles in 2019, 1.065 trillion rubles in 2020, and 1.061 trillion rubles in 2021.

DIVIDENDS

The Finance Ministry does expect any allocations from the central bank’s profit, except dividends of Sberbank, to the federal budget in 2019–2021.

Budget revenues from Sberbank’s dividends are expected at 135.5 billion rubles in 2018, 209.5 billion rubles in 2019, 220.8 billion rubles in 2020, and 231.1 billion rubles in 2021.

The ministry expects that state companies will allocate 588.3 billion rubles in dividends to the budget in 2019, 626.1 billion rubles in 2020, and 675.2 billion rubles in 2021.

SPENDING

Budget spending is projected at 18.06 trillion rubles in 2019, 19.01 trillion rubles in 2020, and 20.04 trillion rubles in 2021.

Budget spending on the state development program of the agricultural sector is expected at 241.446 billion rubles in 2019, 241.63 billion rubles in 2020, and 229.412 billion rubles. Spending on the state program for the development of the fisheries industry is seen at 13.842 billion rubles in 2019, 13.524 billion rubles in 2020, and 12.207 billion rubles in 2021.

Spending on national defense is planned at 2.914 trillion rubles in 2019, 3.02 trillion rubles in 2020, and 3.16 trillion rubles in 2020, while spending on national security is planned at 2.25 trillion rubles in 2019 and in 2020 and at 2.32 trillion rubles in 2021.

Spending on the national economy is expected at 2.64 trillion rubles in 2019, 2.552 trillion rubles in 2020, and 2.776 trillion rubles in 2021. Expenditures on the public utilities sector are projected at 192.2 billion rubles in 2019, 197.1 billion rubles in 2020, and 187.6 billion rubles in 2021. Spending on education will amount to 826.7 billion rubles in 2019, 844.2 billion rubles in 2020, and 877.7 billion rubles in 2021. Spending on healthcare is seen at 655.5 billion rubles in 2019, 918.5 billion rubles in 2020, and 856.2 billion rubles in 2021, while spending on the social policy will amount to 4.885 trillion rubles in 2019, 4.921 trillion rubles in 2020, and 4.754 trillion rubles in 2021.

Spending from Russia’s Development Fund will amount to 411 billion rubles in 2019, 591 billion rubles in 2020, 613 billion rubles in 2021, 592 billion rubles in 2022, 668 billion rubles in 2023, and 655 billion rubles in 2024.

The government also plans to allocate 7 billion rubles to subsidize part of expenditures on creation of domestic gas turbines with a big capacity in 2019–2021, including 3 billion rubles in 2019 and 2 billion rubles both in 2020 and 2021.

BORROWINGS

The government plans foreign borrowings at up to U.S. $3 billion and a buyout of Eurobonds worth up to $4 billion in 2019. In 2020–2021, foreign borrowings are also planned at $3 billion a year.

Domestic borrowings are planned at 2.47 trillion rubles in 2019, 2.42 trillion rubles in 2020, and 2.6 trillion rubles in 2021.

The total volume of Russia’s state debt will grow to 15.3% of GDP in 2019, 16.4% of GDP in 2020, and 17% of GDP in 2021.

WEALTH FUND

The National Wealth Fund is projected at 3.8 trillion rubles as of late 2018, 7.8 trillion rubles as of late 2019, 11.4 trillion rubles as of late 2020, and 14.1 trillion rubles as of late 2021.

(67.7519 rubles – U.S. $1)

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